“To every thing there is a season, and a time to every purpose under the heaven” – Ecclesiastes 3. Like our decade-long economic expansion, nothing lasts forever.

Recession is on the tips of many tongues today. Judging from recent increased market volatility, this possibility is being intensely pondered. What’s driving the conversation? The shape of the yield curve.

To begin, the level of interest you pay on a loan clearly depends on how long you intend to borrow money. Borrowing for just a few months? You’ll pay a different interest rate than if you wanted to borrow for a decade or more. The yield curve is simply a graphical representation of the different interest rates you’ll pay relative to the length of the loan.

In a healthy, growing economy the normal shape of the yield curve is upward sloping. Naturally, a shorter-term loan usually costs less than a longer-term loan.

However, the yield curve isn’t at all rigid. Like all things, it changes a little from day to day. Instead, think of the yield curve as more of a wet noodle. It can shift, twist flop and flip; changing its shape as millions of lenders and borrowers negotiate in real-time.

In early October, I was lucky enough to visit Ireland with my brothers. Even more fortunately, my brother-in-law from New Zealand knew how to drive on the “wrong” side of the road and expertly navigate roundabouts. It seems the Irish love their roundabouts as much as they do their beer! So, in the spirit of the Irish, please follow me (slowly) around my very own “yield curve” roundabout.

As you now know, yield curves are all about interest rates. And, of course, interest rates are all about borrowing and lending. Borrowing and lending activity supercharges our economic booms and busts. And, you guessed it, perceived changes in our economy drive investors to act ahead of the pack. So, coming full circle on my roundabout, the yield curve definitely impacts markets.

But why exactly are investors reacting to the yield curve today?

The once healthy-looking upward sloping yield curve has been slowly flattening for quite a while now. However, this past week, some longer-term interest rates are now actually slightly lower than some shorter-term rates. The shape of the curve has actually started to move from flat-looking to downward sloping. In financial lingo, the yield curve appears to be slowly “inverting.”

An inverted yield curve is an unnatural concept that signals a possible change in the economic cycle; from economic boom to bust. As a matter of fact, each of the past seven recessions were preceded by an inverted yield curve. So you see, the yield curve can strike fear in investors.

While we haven’t seen an officially inverted yield curve just yet, go tell that to those who write the computer algorithms that drive markets today. Based on last week’s wild ride, it’s clear the algorithms, unlike my Kiwi brother-in-law, simply aren’t programmed to drive carefully on the yield curve roundabout!

Jason P. Tank, CFA is the owner of Front Street Wealth Management, a purely independent and strictly fee-only firm located in Traverse City. Contact him at (231) 947-3775, by email at Jason@FrontStreet.com and at www.FrontStreet.com

I’ve been a parent now for almost two decades and, yet, I still have a 10-year old daughter who periodically requires me to play act as a nurse. In her mind, I’m woefully deficient. When she’s sick, my wife is obviously her preferred caregiver. Who can blame her. Accurately diagnosing a fever in just seconds with the back of your hand is a true confidence builder!

This weekend, I read a book entitled, Mastering The Market Cycle, by Howard Marks. Mr. Marks is the co-founder of Oaktree Capital and his quarterly client letters are widely-followed by investment professionals. His latest book seemed especially appropriate to read given that we’re closing in on the ten year mark of our current bull market and economic expansion.

His book’s primary theme is to tilt against the crowd; to be the skeptic. For some, like me, this is a natural state of mind. For most, however, adopting this mindset is a challenge. Being agreeable is a social asset, after all. On the contrary, following the crowd doesn’t work that well in investing. Howard Marks actually argues for just the opposite; watch the crowd and act accordingly.

In his book, he referenced a checklist to help investors take the temperature of the markets. Like my wife’s trick with our daughter, it only takes a few seconds.

Marks asks readers to make a qualitative judgment for each item in the checklist; forcing a gut-level choice between an optimistic and a pessimistic descriptor. When your answers tilt heavily in either direction, his advice is to open your eyes for a market inflection point.

His checklist basically covers four main areas; the state of the economy, a review of general lending conditions, the overall market backdrop and a reading of the mindset of investors.

To give you a flavor of his checklist, here are some examples. On the economy; vibrant or sluggish. Its near-term outlook? Positive or negative. On lenders; eager and loose or reticent and tight? How about interest rates? Low or high, rising or falling? On investor attitude; aggressive and eager or cautious and distressed? On investor appetite; own the entire market or invest selectively?

So, you are likely wondering, what’s my back-of-the-hand temperature reading of today’s environment? Things are changing, especially compared to one year ago.

Unlike last year, with the tax cuts imminent, investors are openly nervous. In addition, interest rates have risen and lenders have grown more cautious. As a result, major industries, such as housing and autos, are feeling challenged. Further, while admittedly a recent phenomenon, the investor crowd is tilting toward conservative stocks and fleeing once-loved tech stocks. The broad stock market has completely given up its gains from this summer. And, after its total absence last year, volatility is firmly back.

For my daughter and, importantly, for your portfolio, taking an accurate temperature most certainly provides a confidence boost. However, it’s really just the first step in a true game plan. As a New Year’s resolution, I’d suggest taking a fresh look at your portfolio’s overall risk, be on alert for a sense of complacency and then, as Howard Marks suggests, act accordingly.

Jason P. Tank, CFA is the owner of Front Street Wealth Management, a purely independent and strictly fee-only firm located in Traverse City. Contact him at (231) 947-3775, by email at Jason@FrontStreet.com and at www.FrontStreet.com

Bonds are behaving badly. This year, the bond market has lost about 2.5%, after factoring in interest payments received and the downward shift in market value. For most investors, a loss is unusual in this typically steady part of their portfolio. Why is this happening?

To begin, visualize a teeter-totter. Like a teeter-totter, when interest rates drop, bond prices rise. This downward movement in interest rates has been the general trend since way back in Ronald Reagan’s first term. But, like a teeter-totter, it also works in reverse. When rates rise, bond prices fall.

Lately, interest rates are rising. I’m not talking short-term rates, though. Those are controlled by the Federal Reserve. Like a steady drumbeat, the Fed has raised rates three times this year, just as they did last year. But, short term rates really don’t directly affect bond prices much. I’m talking about long term rates. That’s where today’s losses in bonds come into play.

At the start of the year, the 10-year US Treasury rate was just under 2.5%. Today, this closely-watched “benchmark” rate is almost 3.2%. This has caused the teeter-totter to swing; rates up, prices down. An upward shift of almost 1% in long term rates is quite big. For those who are familiar with teeter-totters, it’s never fun when your partner jumps off!

With longer-term interest rates having reached a decades-long low not too long ago, the fear of rising rates has been palpable. Yet, it has largely been all bark and no bite. Lately, that fear has been validated.

With this, there are two burning questions. Why have rates risen? And, what should we expect now?

The typical explanation of why long-term rates rise is inflation. This makes sense. After all, when you lend money, you’d like to first keep up with inflation and also make some “real” money to boot.

When you look at investors’ inflation expectations, though, not a lot has changed since the start of the year. Future inflation expectations have held steady at around 2%. No, interest rates have risen because bond investors now demand more of a “real” return on their money. This often happens when the economy looks strong.

If the economy keeps wind in its sails, it’s not inconceivable to expect longer term rates to keep rising, perhaps up another 0.5% or so. If that happens, bonds face some more headwinds. However, I believe the bulk of the pain in bonds is likely over.

If, on the other hand, the economy’s sugar high from the recent tax cuts and deficit spending wears off, the teeter-totter just might swing back in bond investors’ favor again.

With the balance of risk about even, in my view, my generalized advice is to shift your bond portfolio into some shorter-term bonds. This analogous to scooting your bum a little closer to the center of that teeter-totter. If your partner keeps jumping off, the swings won’t be quite as jarring!

Jason P. Tank, CFA is the owner of Front Street Wealth Management, a fee-only wealth advisory firm located in Traverse City. Comments welcomed by phone at (231) 947-3775, by email at Jason@FrontStreet.com or online at www.FrontStreet.com

At our upcoming Money Series at Traverse Area District Library, I will be speaking about a topic that I now believe is bordering on an obsession; the new tax law.

Perhaps that’s due to its important changes that affect charitable giving. Perhaps it’s due to how it affects families with younger children. Perhaps it’s due to the new law’s effect on business owners. Perhaps still, it may be due to how it has affected the stock market and the federal budget deficits for as far as the eye can see. The fact is, it’s a pretty big deal, worthy of a small professional obsession.

On the evening of November 14th, the Money Series will provide a sweeping overview of what’s changed in the world of taxes for individuals and couples. And, I’ll give proper focus to the wildly impactful and still-misunderstood small business deduction.

According to the Tax Foundation, about 90% of all tax filers will benefit by claiming what’s known as the “standard deduction.” This means most taxpayers will no longer have to gather piles of paperwork to hand to their tax preparer. No more property tax statements. No more investment fee statements. And, no more verification of the deductibility of charitable donations. Instead, the vast majority of people will rely entirely on the new, much higher standard deduction. It’s a big simplification for many.

However, as a result, many people will need to change their charitable habits in order to gain a tax benefit for their generosity. If you don’t, Uncle Sam will cease to be your “partner in giving.” After all, when the federal and state government reimburse you by lowering your tax bill after you donate money, it’s as if they picked up part of the tab.

My presentation will also provide a layman’s perspective on the very important small business tax deduction. Ironically, it’s the opposite of tax simplification. As a result, I expect it will occupy a good amount of time. If you know of anybody who owns a business, they need to know how Congress handed them a big bone and how to use it to their advantage.

I also suspect the Q&A segment will delve into the mind-boggling projections on the federal budget deficit. While I sense that today’s financial markets don’t foresee an issue with our profligate spending as a nation and, in the end, the US has an infinite printing press, Ernest Hemingway’s quote may someday carry the ring of truth, “How did you go bankrupt? Two ways. Gradually and then suddenly!”

Before the upcoming Nov 14th Money Series, there’s also a chance to catch attorney Diane Huff’s talk, “What the Heck is a Trust, Anyway”, to be held on Wed., Nov. 7 at 10:30am at the Senior Center. The Money Series is a program of the Front Street Foundation, a non-profit committed to providing open-access to financial education, for all. To register, go to MoneySeries.org or call (231) 714-6459.

Planning for the possibility of mental decline is not something any of us likes to consider. The fact is, however, it’s critically important. And, if it’s your own decline that requires such a plan, don’t you think you should be the one who develops it?

This reminds me of something I thought about in my early 20s. Back then, I watched Bill Clinton blow up his personal life – and almost his presidency – by having an affair with an intern. At that time, I remember noting how men in their 40s must be unavoidably prone to colossal mid-life crises.

I felt so certain of this that I once remarked to my wife that all of us really should designate another person – call it your “life proxy” – who would have ultimate veto power of all of your major life decisions during that dangerous life stage.

So, you want to quit being an attorney and become a musician? Call in your life proxy to decide! Really? You want to get a divorce and marry your long-lost college girlfriend? Proxy to the rescue!

While I haven’t followed the advice of my younger self, I still think naming a life proxy was a sound idea. The mid-40s is certainly a funny age. Heck, I ran for the school board and I’m quite certain my life proxy, if I had named one, would have likely vetoed my decision!

Yet, even if you missed your opportunity to hand over the keys to your life proxy in your mid-40s, you still have another chance to be proactive during your retirement years.

I have had a recent experience with a wonderful client and her caring children. Her mental faculties have slipped over the years and the decline has sadly accelerated over the past few months. She knew she never wanted to be in this state. Yet, now that she’s there, she predictably and sadly cannot recognize the depth of her decline. For her, and for many others, the time to plan was well before she crossed that blurry threshold of self-recognition.

Fortunately, official recognition of just how vulnerable seniors are to financial fraud has begun to take hold. For example, at the time of opening a new account, brokerage firms have now begun to ask for what’s called a “trusted contact.” A trusted contact is someone who you want notified if the suspicion of financial exploitation or self-harm arises.

As an investment advisor serving a generally older clientele, I am a proponent of this idea. In fact, my firm is going to soon begin to gather our clients’ trusted contacts.

Clearly, designating a trusted contact is a far cry from naming your all-powerful life proxy to make all of the big decisions in your life, but it’s a very good place to start your plan as you advance in your retirement years.

Speaking of life planning, attend our next Money Series presentation by attorney Diane Huff entitled, “What the Heck is a Trust, Anyway”, to be held on Wed., October 17 at 6:30pm in the McGuire Rm. of the Traverse Area District Library. The Money Series is a program of the Front Street Foundation, a non-profit committed to providing open-access to financial education, for all. To register, go to MoneySeries.org or call (231) 714-6459.