Q: It’s been quite a rebound since Christmas Eve, so what’s going on with the stock market, lately?

A: You are very right. The market’s bounce back over the last six weeks has been both sudden and strong. It hasn’t quite clawed back all of the big decline that began last September. But, generally-speaking, it’s more than halfway there.

I’d chalk up the rebound to four factors. First, when the mood gets as dark as it was, you can usually expect a bounce back. It’s pretty typical when markets get so “oversold.” Second, the fear of a looming recession has somewhat faded. Recent economic data have been better than expected, including yet another strong jobs report in January. Third, the potentially damaging trade war with Trump and China appears to have cooled off. Continued spasms should be expected until that issue is resolved, however. Finally, the Fed blinked as Wall Street’s loud whining got their attention.

Of course, none of these factors are irreversible and the concerns of the recent past were not entirely invalid. Given this, my suggestion is to take this rebound as an opportunity to now evaluate your overall portfolio risk. After this big rebound, it feels like a second chance.

Q: With the Federal Reserve having raised rates over the last couple years, what return should I expect on my cash?

A: Cash is no longer trash. But, you need to be vigilant to get the return you deserve. Banks and brokerage firms are perfectly happy paying you far too little. It’s not evil; it’s just economics.

For example, the default money market funds at most brokerage firms pay about 0.25% to 0.5% today. You can easily get more than 2% on your cash, even if it comes with some very minor inconveniences. This difference can add up.

My suggestion is to first review your cash holdings as a percent of your portfolio. If your portfolio has much more than 5% sitting in cash, talk to your adviser about shifting it into a “position-traded” money market fund rather than the default, “sweep” money market fund. Yes, when you need access to your cash, you’ll need to sell (for free) your money market fund, like you do with a normal mutual fund. But, it takes just one day of planning ahead in exchange for getting an extra 2% return on your cash. It’s an easy move!

Join us for our next Money Series presentation this upcoming Wednesday at 6:30pm in the McGuire Room of the Traverse Area District Library. This month’s talk is based on a thought-provoking academic study on the power of working longer to boost your retirement planning. To register, please visit MoneySeries.org or simply call (231) 668-6894. Front Street Foundation, through its commercial-free Money Series programs, is a non-profit committed to providing open-access to financial education, for all.

Financial markets were not friendly in 2018. Over the last few months, the markets were actually just plain mean.

For my clients, I’ve been sticking to a more conservative approach that helped to somewhat lessen the blow. That basically means I chose to invest less-heavily in stocks than I could have been. However, in all honesty, I didn’t position things conservatively enough. Hindsight always appears crystal clear!

I’ve been asked lately if we’re heading into a recession. Here’s why I feel it’s too early to tell.

There are two major types of recession indicators. The first is made up of “betting” indicators. They are a reflection of the shoot-first, question-later collective guesses made by the markets. The second type is comprised of “fundamental” indicators. These include both business and consumer surveys as well as economic releases.

The market-based indicators are often way out in front of the economy’s fundamentals; zigging and zagging and garnering alarming media headlines. Today, the financial markets are currently flashing red.

The stock market recently crossed over the official line that marks a bear market. And, both the yield curve and bond prices for lower-quality companies foreshadow a weakening economy. On the whole, these signs raise concern.

However, financial markets aren’t all-knowing. They often get it wrong. Since 1950, there have been 13 bear markets and nearly half of the time no recession followed. Markets can’t see the future, because (most) people can’t see the future!

The fundamental indicators currently offer a less-concerning picture. Most economist see slower economic and company earnings growth ahead. But, still, positive growth is expected this year. The Fed now appears ready to calm markets by slowing or even pausing its rate hiking plans. And, for different reasons, it’s conceivable that both Trump and China might blink on the trade spat. Overall, the best way to describe the fundamental indicators is they appear to be taking on an unattractive yellow-green tint.

The current split in the indicators forces me to avoid looking to the market to either validate or refute my current game plan.

At the highest level, I rest on the knowledge that my clients’ overall asset allocation is diversified, balanced and appropriate for them. Next, I’m focused on making sure the investments I’ve chosen are both sound and safe. Soundness places a premium on quality investments backed by financial strength. Safety emphasizes value, as measured by price relative to things like earnings or cash flow.

Beyond asset allocation, soundness and safety, the game plan has to remain flexible. To be sure, if the fundamental indicators begin to better align with the market’s signals, taking proactive steps to lower risk is in the cards.

As famed value investor, Ben Graham used to remind his students, including a young Warren Buffett, “Mr. Market” is a fickle man who is prone to bounce between elation and despair. In the face of his emotional roller-coaster, the wisest thing is to be prudent, stay rational, weigh the evidence and think independently. That’s just what I was hired to do!

The turn of a new calendar year holds special appeal. It’s a natural time to reflect. It’s also a moment to set a new course for your personal finances.

For some, seeking the help of a financial pro feels unnecessary. I know people who run circles around some financial advisors! But, most people aren’t comfortable going it alone and do want support.

As I get ready to celebrate my twentieth year in the industry, I’d like to offer up some guidance to help ensure you find a good fit with a financial advisor.

Find a good communicator. Like a good marriage or friendship, communication is number one.

Perhaps using overly-technical terms makes some advisors feel smart or we simply become a bit tone-deaf over the years. The fact is, industry-centric terms hold little meaning for regular people. Help us by asking us to use plain English!

Beyond actually understanding the advice you’re paying for, you should expect to always be kept informed along the way about your money.

Find a seasoned advisor. Like money, knowledge is accumulated over time.

Essentially, a financial advisor’s experience comes from two sources; education and years on the job. The first centers on credentials. And, on behalf of my entire industry, I deeply apologize for the alphabet of letters behind everyone’s names! Even I’ve lost track. To focus you, first look for the letters CFP (financial planning) or CFA (investment management.)

However, a professional designation doesn’t mean much if it’s not backed by years of relevant experience. I used to joke that investment advisors who cut their teeth during the long bull market in the ‘80s and ‘90s accumulated just a few good years of experience – over and over, again. Some stretches are like the movie, Groundhog’s Day. My suggestion is to seek someone who has operated through some market cycles and some volatility.

Find a financially- and ethically-aligned advisor. As the saying goes, form follows function.

Over the years, there’s been a clear movement away from advisors who sell financial products for a commission and toward advisors who provide investment management and planning on a recurring or one-time fee-basis. I feel strongly that a strictly fee-only arrangement ensures advisors will uphold their legal fiduciary duty to place your interests ahead of their own. But, these principles haven’t completely sunk in as evidenced by annuity sales people still offering free dinners just to hear their pitch!

Over the years, I’ve come to recognize that choosing a professional advisor is a daunting task. If the last few months of market turmoil is any indication, ensuring a good fit with your chosen financial advisor may become increasingly important.

Jason P. Tank, CFA is both the owner of Front Street Wealth Management, a purely fee-only advisory firm, and the founder of the Money Series, a program committed to providing open-access to financial education, for all. Contact him at (231) 947-3775, by email at Jason@FrontStreet.com and at www.FrontStreet.com

“To every thing there is a season, and a time to every purpose under the heaven” – Ecclesiastes 3. Like our decade-long economic expansion, nothing lasts forever.

Recession is on the tips of many tongues today. Judging from recent increased market volatility, this possibility is being intensely pondered. What’s driving the conversation? The shape of the yield curve.

To begin, the level of interest you pay on a loan clearly depends on how long you intend to borrow money. Borrowing for just a few months? You’ll pay a different interest rate than if you wanted to borrow for a decade or more. The yield curve is simply a graphical representation of the different interest rates you’ll pay relative to the length of the loan.

In a healthy, growing economy the normal shape of the yield curve is upward sloping. Naturally, a shorter-term loan usually costs less than a longer-term loan.

However, the yield curve isn’t at all rigid. Like all things, it changes a little from day to day. Instead, think of the yield curve as more of a wet noodle. It can shift, twist flop and flip; changing its shape as millions of lenders and borrowers negotiate in real-time.

In early October, I was lucky enough to visit Ireland with my brothers. Even more fortunately, my brother-in-law from New Zealand knew how to drive on the “wrong” side of the road and expertly navigate roundabouts. It seems the Irish love their roundabouts as much as they do their beer! So, in the spirit of the Irish, please follow me (slowly) around my very own “yield curve” roundabout.

As you now know, yield curves are all about interest rates. And, of course, interest rates are all about borrowing and lending. Borrowing and lending activity supercharges our economic booms and busts. And, you guessed it, perceived changes in our economy drive investors to act ahead of the pack. So, coming full circle on my roundabout, the yield curve definitely impacts markets.

But why exactly are investors reacting to the yield curve today?

The once healthy-looking upward sloping yield curve has been slowly flattening for quite a while now. However, this past week, some longer-term interest rates are now actually slightly lower than some shorter-term rates. The shape of the curve has actually started to move from flat-looking to downward sloping. In financial lingo, the yield curve appears to be slowly “inverting.”

An inverted yield curve is an unnatural concept that signals a possible change in the economic cycle; from economic boom to bust. As a matter of fact, each of the past seven recessions were preceded by an inverted yield curve. So you see, the yield curve can strike fear in investors.

While we haven’t seen an officially inverted yield curve just yet, go tell that to those who write the computer algorithms that drive markets today. Based on last week’s wild ride, it’s clear the algorithms, unlike my Kiwi brother-in-law, simply aren’t programmed to drive carefully on the yield curve roundabout!

Jason P. Tank, CFA is the owner of Front Street Wealth Management, a purely independent and strictly fee-only firm located in Traverse City. Contact him at (231) 947-3775, by email at Jason@FrontStreet.com and at www.FrontStreet.com

I’ve been a parent now for almost two decades and, yet, I still have a 10-year old daughter who periodically requires me to play act as a nurse. In her mind, I’m woefully deficient. When she’s sick, my wife is obviously her preferred caregiver. Who can blame her. Accurately diagnosing a fever in just seconds with the back of your hand is a true confidence builder!

This weekend, I read a book entitled, Mastering The Market Cycle, by Howard Marks. Mr. Marks is the co-founder of Oaktree Capital and his quarterly client letters are widely-followed by investment professionals. His latest book seemed especially appropriate to read given that we’re closing in on the ten year mark of our current bull market and economic expansion.

His book’s primary theme is to tilt against the crowd; to be the skeptic. For some, like me, this is a natural state of mind. For most, however, adopting this mindset is a challenge. Being agreeable is a social asset, after all. On the contrary, following the crowd doesn’t work that well in investing. Howard Marks actually argues for just the opposite; watch the crowd and act accordingly.

In his book, he referenced a checklist to help investors take the temperature of the markets. Like my wife’s trick with our daughter, it only takes a few seconds.

Marks asks readers to make a qualitative judgment for each item in the checklist; forcing a gut-level choice between an optimistic and a pessimistic descriptor. When your answers tilt heavily in either direction, his advice is to open your eyes for a market inflection point.

His checklist basically covers four main areas; the state of the economy, a review of general lending conditions, the overall market backdrop and a reading of the mindset of investors.

To give you a flavor of his checklist, here are some examples. On the economy; vibrant or sluggish. Its near-term outlook? Positive or negative. On lenders; eager and loose or reticent and tight? How about interest rates? Low or high, rising or falling? On investor attitude; aggressive and eager or cautious and distressed? On investor appetite; own the entire market or invest selectively?

So, you are likely wondering, what’s my back-of-the-hand temperature reading of today’s environment? Things are changing, especially compared to one year ago.

Unlike last year, with the tax cuts imminent, investors are openly nervous. In addition, interest rates have risen and lenders have grown more cautious. As a result, major industries, such as housing and autos, are feeling challenged. Further, while admittedly a recent phenomenon, the investor crowd is tilting toward conservative stocks and fleeing once-loved tech stocks. The broad stock market has completely given up its gains from this summer. And, after its total absence last year, volatility is firmly back.

For my daughter and, importantly, for your portfolio, taking an accurate temperature most certainly provides a confidence boost. However, it’s really just the first step in a true game plan. As a New Year’s resolution, I’d suggest taking a fresh look at your portfolio’s overall risk, be on alert for a sense of complacency and then, as Howard Marks suggests, act accordingly.

Jason P. Tank, CFA is the owner of Front Street Wealth Management, a purely independent and strictly fee-only firm located in Traverse City. Contact him at (231) 947-3775, by email at Jason@FrontStreet.com and at www.FrontStreet.com