If you’ve worked up the guts to glance at your portfolio lately, you might be pleasantly surprised. It might even look like very little has happened this year. Of course, it has felt like a malfunctioning roller-coaster ride. In fact, 2025 resembles Lemony Snicket’s “A Series of Unfortunate Events.” It’s been one thing after another.

It all started when the new administration took office. The onslaught of executive orders, slash-and-burn DOGE tactics and abrupt policy reversals immediately shook investors and retirees, alike. To be honest, I’ve lost count of how many people have expressed worry over the future of Social Security. That part is particularly unfortunate.

Then came the tariffs. As we all know by now, in early April President Trump unveiled a tariff policy that was seemingly devised by a procrastinating, high-school student relying on ChatGPT. To put it nicely, it made no sense. In response, the stock market plunged nearly 15% in a matter of days. Succumbing to Wall Street’s pressure, President Trump tweeted out a 90-day “pause.” The market then spiked 10% in the span of just an hour.

Since cooler heads appear to have prevailed, the stock market has clawed its way to within spitting distance of its all-time high set in mid-February. But, we aren’t out of the woods. The new tariffs and their inflationary and economic pressure remain a focus. The Fed’s path is very murky, to put it mildly. In classic economist-speak, on one hand the economy is slowing. But, on the other hand, tariffs are inflationary. I’m pretty sure derogatory jabs by President Trump are not making things any easier for the Fed.

The promised avalanche of big trade deals to come has yet to materialize. The fact that the April tariffs might soon be ruled as illegal could explain the slow progress. Why negotiate with a policy that might vanish on its own? Instead, we’ve only seen a few vague announcements of “frameworks.” Nevertheless, the markets seem to believe level-headed adults have taken things over. It’s not hard to imagine this as wishful thinking.

Adding to the mix of uncertainty, extending the 2018 tax cuts is now in jeopardy. If the massive tax and spending bill fails under its own weight, taxes could rise for almost every household. Some insist on sweeping spending cuts. Others refuse to budge on more tax breaks. It’s a game of legislative whack-a-mole. We shall see.

If you’ve found yourself mirroring the wild market moves with similar emotional swings, this recent recovery might offer a rare shot at a review and reset of your portfolio’s risk. This might mean raising some cash and trimming your stock market exposure. 

This is not a prediction of doom-and-gloom ahead. As I’ve learned over the years, everything should be done with a deep sense of humility. After all, nobody can predict markets with much consistency. All things in moderation is a sound guiding principle, especially in an environment seemingly devoid of it.

Markets may feel a bit steadier, but don’t mistake this moment for stability. After the recent chaos, investors are breathing a little easier. But, I wouldn’t say we’re out of the woods. More likely, we’re experiencing a temporary reprieve.

President Trump’s recent 90-day pause of his so-called “reciprocal tariff” plan was his first sign of retreat. Stories are now floating around that he might just lower tariffs on China – from ridiculous levels to merely too high. And, he has also signaled a willingness to talk to Chinese President Xi, but only if he calls him first. Adding to the sense of calm, Trump has also suddenly decided to tone down his antagonism toward Federal Reserve head, Jerome Powell. This was just days after calling him a “major loser” on social media.

Of course, none of these reversals were rolled out as a formal shift in policy. Instead, they’ve come in the form of hints, rumors, offhand remarks and social media posts – leaving everyone to decipher the White House’s true intentions in real time. These childish guessing games have tangible, economic consequences.

The markets’ sense of relief started when Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent and Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick reportedly found a way to literally sneak into the Oval Office. Their goal was to get President Trump to at least pause his new tariff “policy.” The sneaking around was apparently necessary to get Trump’s influential trade adviser, Peter Navarro, out of earshot. Their clandestine effort smacks as a desperate maneuver. Moments later, Bessent and Lutnick waited in the room while President Trump walked back his tariff plan via a social media post. The mere image of this intervention is unsettling.

The policy in question – vaguely defined “reciprocal” tariffs – was never truly about reciprocity. Instead, it relied on a crude formula that no serious economist could defend. This entire episode highlights a governance style that appears impulsive, unthoughtful and reactive. Business leaders are left to guess what policy will look like a week from now. It has layered on a level of uncertainty that risks a recession.

Markets can handle policy changes. They can even handle reasonable unpredictability. But, when rules shift with little notice and policies lurch between extremes, the trust that underpins our markets erodes. The notion that Bessent and Lutnick are holding back the erosion of terrible decision making is concerning, to say the least.

While the “adults in the room” appear to have taken charge – for now – it’s unclear how long it will last. For this reason, now might be a good time to review your portfolio. If the past month has prompted feelings of regret for not paying closer attention to your investments, this period of calm might be a second chance. Because, in this environment – and with the current occupant of the Oval Office – it’s rarely about if the tone will change, but when.

As everyone knows by now, markets are experiencing extreme volatility. Over the past ten days, stocks have dropped considerably. The selling has been a global affair. Perhaps most notably, US government bonds have failed to offer their usual safe harbor. Investors have sent a clear sign of a loss of confidence.

The proximate cause was President Trump’s decision on April 2nd to impose blanket tariffs on virtually every other country on the planet. While we all knew some tariffs were in the offing, the specifics of his policy were a huge surprise. His process, methods and decisions were widely viewed as shockingly uninformed. The policy simply ignored the deep complexity and inherent interconnectedness of global trade. Once the details were fully analyzed and absorbed, it became clear President Trump’s tariffs lacked a foundation in sound economic thinking and risked a recession.

Big money players quickly voiced concerns. Piles of CEOs and investors questioned whether the Trump administration even understood what it was doing. Naturally, White House officials made the rounds in the media, defending his tariffs in ways that further strained credibility. Over time, their arguments appeared increasingly disconnected from the reality unfolding in the markets.

Thankfully, the backlash was intense. Under mounting pressure, President Trump finally reversed course and announced a 90-day pause in the tariffs. The White House called it “his plan all along.” They now claim he was just trying to bring other countries to the negotiating table. Of course, if the tariffs were just his tactic to gain leverage, pausing them at the drop of the hat and declaring victory is almost laughable. Are we really to believe that he relinquished his leverage just because an undisclosed number of countries have supposedly reached out to talk? There were many, less damaging ways to start a conversation. Thoughtful people know President Trump buckled to immense pressure and was offered an “off ramp” to save face.

Now, the timeline of his announcement of his tariff “pause” raises some serious questions. Media sources reported last Monday morning that such a pause was in the works. Stocks vaulted within minutes. The White House quickly declared those reports to be “fake news.” Promptly, stocks resumed their slide. Then, only two days later on Wednesday morning – hours before making his public announcement – President Trump posted on social media that it was “a great time to buy.” He later admitted his decision to pause tariffs was made that very morning. Piecing this timeline together, it’s quite clear that President Trump publicly encouraged people to buy stocks – and, it is important to remember for every buyer, there is a seller – while he sat on market-moving information that he alone controlled. This is a disturbing breach of the public’s trust.

Sadly, this entire episode – and continued escalations with China – is yet another stark reminder of the need for Congress to reassert its constitutional authority. If our lawmakers don’t step up and do their jobs – soon – they share responsibility for what happens next. Have they not yet seen enough?