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Pick Your Bond Teeter-Totter Wisely

March 27, 2017 by Jason P. Tank, CFA, CFP, EA

With the Federal Reserve starting in earnest to raise interest rates, it’s all the rage to worry about bonds. Why all the hand-wringing? It boils down to a tendency to over simplify the math.

To start, bond investors expect two things; getting their money back at some known point in the future and receiving interest income while they twiddle their thumbs.

Investors are imprinted at birth with the notion that rising interest rates are bad news for bonds, and vice versa. Like a teeter-totter; on one end sits bond prices, and on the other end sit interest rates. When rates rise, bonds fall in value. When rates fall, bond prices rise.

Of course, this basic math of bonds isn’t all there is to know. Let me necessarily complicate the matter.

The first thing to know is that maturity matters. I’m talking about the length of time a bond investor agrees to wait to get their money back. The shorter they agree to wait, the less worried they should be about rising interest rates.

The closer to maturity, the smaller the ups-and-downs they’ll feel. Think of it as “scooching” closer to the center of that teeter-totter. In fact, if you scooch in really close, the ride can get awfully boring, no matter how many headlines Janet Yellen and the Fed are making.

The second thing to know is interest rates come in many flavors. There are interest rates for bond investors who don’t want to wait long for their money. And, there are interest rates for the very patient bond investor. And, of course, there’s a full spectrum of rates in between. This spectrum is known as the “yield-curve.”

It’s the changing shape of the yield curve that really matters. The short, middle and the long-end of the yield-curve might behave very differently. As a bond investor, there are lots of teeter-totters on the playground to hop on. Some are slow and some are fast. Some produce a wild ride. Others are boring.

The third thing to know is not all bonds carry the same risks. You might choose to lend to a sure-bet borrower or to a dead-beat debtor. The sure-bet naturally pays less interest and the dead-beat pays more.

To bond investors, everything is a game of comparison. The difference in the interest you’ll earn by lending to the highest quality borrower – the US Treasury with its power to tax and to print money – and to the mere mortal borrowers, are known as the “credit spread.” Credit spreads pay you for taking a risk.

The level of credit spreads changes with the ebb-and-flow of investor confidence. On one hand, “wide” credit spreads can protect investors like an airbag when the teeter-totter hurls you downward. On the other hand, “tight” credit spreads can lead to a sore rear-end or worse.

Yes, it’s true the Fed appears hell-bent on raising short-term interest rates. But, clearly there’s more to know than just that fact alone. Your choice of maturity, your assessment of the shape of the yield-curve and your focus on the level of credit spreads will all play a factor in how your bond portfolio will perform. Be sure to pick your teeter-totter wisely.

ACA vs. AHCA: Everything Old is New Again

March 10, 2017 by Jason P. Tank, CFA, CFP, EA

The more things change, the more they stay the same. That was never more true than with the recent unveiling of the Republicans’ long-awaited “Repeal and Replace” plan, called the American Health Care Act (AHCA). To the surprise of many, under their plan large swaths of the existing Affordable Care Act (ACA) would remain.

Given the likely continuity of key provisions of the Affordable Care Act, the upcoming Money Series presentation by Laverna Witkop of Ford Insurance Agency couldn’t be better timing. For those interested in learning more about ways to access today’s health insurance market, Laverna’s grasp of both the current ACA’s rules as well as her knowledge of the Republicans’ proposed changes under AHCA will be on full display.

To begin, let’s first describe a few major similarities between the proposed AHCA and the existing ACA.

The ban on denying insurance coverage for those with pre-existing conditions will remain unchanged. In addition, the rule allowing young adults to stay on their parents’ health insurance policy until age 26 would also remain. And, perhaps most controversially for some GOP members, the AHCA maintains the granting of health insurance premium subsidies through tax credits.

Of course, there are also major differences between the ACA and the proposed AHCA.

Where the ACA provides premium subsidies based solely on income, the Republican’s AHCA instead bases its subsidies on age alone. This change favors those with greater income and those who are older. Additionally, health savings account contribution limits would also rise substantially, a change that mostly benefits those with higher incomes.

Further, many of the new taxes created under ACA would disappear under AHCA. Among others, gone are the taxes on some medical devices and the extra tax applied to investment income for very high income households. Finally, penalties imposed on certain employers for failing to offer “affordable” insurance plans are eliminated too.

Aside from the loud critique that the proposed AHCA simply looks too much like the existing ACA, the new plan’s decision to maintain many of the same benefits along with the repeal of taxes may have created a tall political hurdle for certain Republicans; a possible widening budget deficit.

Leaping this hurdle may prove difficult and might add some political intrigue. Passing the law may require the Republican leadership to either make the new AHCA more palatable to the conservative wing or require them to convince enough Democrats to vote for it. Democrats might pragmatically view the new AHCA as just close enough to the old ACA. After all, their acronyms alone look awfully similar! That’s politics for you.

Moving beyond the politics and into the realm of financial education, join Laverna Witkop at the Front Street Foundation’s Money Series on March 22 at 6:30pm in the McGuire Room of the Traverse Area District Library where she’ll speak about the nuances of the Affordable Care Act and your health insurance choices. Register at frontstreetfoundation.org or call (231) 714-6459.

An Historical Perspective on Today’s Market

February 26, 2017 by Jason P. Tank, CFA, CFP, EA

Here’s an historical perspective on the price (valuation) of today’s stock market… in short, by many measures, we’re experiencing one of the highest priced markets in modern history. Regardless of riding the momentum, proactive risk management is prudent behavior, in my view.

https://www.advisorperspectives.com/dshort/updates/2017/02/01/is-the-stock-market-cheap

Minding Your Financial CyberSecurity

February 21, 2017 by Jason P. Tank, CFA, CFP, EA

According to Charles Dickens, “It was the best of times, it was the worst of times…” While he certainly didn’t know about the many benefits and pitfalls the internet would bring with regard to the security of personal information, Dickens aptly describes a modern day plight for today’s investors. If managed correctly, you can get the best of both worlds; easy access to your information with the peace-of-mind you deserve.

As an investment advisor who tends to work with near-retired or currently-retired clients, the concerns expressed to me regarding the online security of financial information is ever present. And it’s a growing problem that’s rightfully caught the attention of my industry’s regulators.

However, developing and maintaining the security of clients’ personal information requires a true partnership between both the client and the professional. In the absence of clients following sound online habits, like most things in life, there’s a weak link in the chain.

In addition to communicating with your professional advisors about their internal cybersecurity policies designed to reasonably protect your information and your money, here are a few things that you can do to help.

First, develop safe password policies. At its most basic level, avoid using overly simplistic passwords. Naturally, the simpler it is for you to remember, the simpler it is for criminals to exploit.

In an era where all of us are juggling dozens of passwords for dozens of websites, it is also intelligent to avoid using the same password across the board, even if it’s sufficiently complex.

Instead, consider creating a single “core” password dedicated just for your financial websites. And, then simply append to your core password a unique identifier to make it one-of-a-kind. Additionally, make it a habit to change your financial passwords frequently. This will help mitigate your financial risk with the types of widespread data breaches we’ve witnessed in recent years.

Second, watch out for what’s known as email phishing scams. It’s not uncommon for unsuspecting victims to fall for fake emails linking to imposter financial institutions’ login pages. By the time they realize it, victims enter their login information online and inadvertently share it with criminals. A best practice is to never click on links to financial websites within emails. Instead, just enter their website address directly in your browser.

Finally, consider calling the various credit report companies – Equifax, Experian and TransUnion – and ask them to install a “lock” on your credit report. This feature can effectively stop identity fraudsters from opening up new credit cards in your name.

So, in the face of Dickens’ double-edged commentary, I’d argue the internet offers far too much to let worry stand in your way. Take a few precautions and enjoy the world of information literally at your fingertips.

Social Security, The Pogo Stick Plan

February 3, 2017 by Jason P. Tank, CFA, CFP, EA


Not too long ago, retirement planning was built on the concept of a three-legged stool. One, a pension, negotiated by you and promised by your employer. Two, your own investments, saved by you and supported by an ever-growing economy. Three, Social Security, provided by you and your employer and mandated by your government.

With this secure and sturdy stool in place, a solid retirement plan was once likely, if not probable. For many today, retirement security is based not on a concept of a stool, but rather a pogo stick, where Social Security plays a huge role for those who struggle to save and invest.

Given its importance, the next Money Series event will delve into Social Security; how the program works and the rules you should understand to get the most out of it.

To highlight Social Security’s impact on our lives, a few facts speak volumes.

Approximately 60 million people receive almost $1 trillion in benefits every year. On average, the program provides about one third of household income for the elderly. Yet, even those statistics don’t properly paint the full picture.

Digging deeper, about half of all retired married couples and three out of four retired single people receive more than half of their income from Social Security. Shockingly, almost half of retired singles rely on Social Security for over 90% of their income.

Social Security is a big deal. Even so, its various rules and options remain a mystery to most. It literally pays to know them better.

Far too many fail to realize the advantages of simply waiting to file for benefits. As a result, millions leave billions of dollars on the table by choosing to file at their earliest possible age of eligibility. In fact, just less than half file for benefits at age 62. Astonishingly, waiting until age 70 to file for benefits results in nearly 80% more per month.

In an age of constant medical advancements, longevity can be both a friend and foe. Earning Social Security’s delayed-retirement credits, earned by waiting to file for as long as possible, is just one tool tilting things in your favor.

For married couples, it’s important to understand that lower-earning spouses may be entitled to receive additional benefits – called, spousal benefits – in exchange for supporting the careers of their higher-earning spouse and/or choosing to raise the children.

Many people also fail to understand that even after a divorce or the death of a spouse they are entitled to benefits connected to their former married status. Spousal benefits for divorced retirees and survivor benefits are yet another wrinkle that deserves a deeper education.

Finally, since April is just around the corner, it’s also important to understand how your Social Security benefits are taxed. From the limits on what you are allowed to earn when you are under age 66 to the amount of income allowed before Social Security starts to tax away your benefits, various strategies do exist to help you minimize the taxman’s bite.

To hear more on Social Security’s rules and options, join me on Wednesday, Feb 15th at 6:30pm for the Front Street Foundation’s Money Series held in the McGuire Room at the Traverse Area District Library. Visit MoneySeries.org

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