Today’s column is written on trading Day 31 of my internal market timeline that started with the all-time high set in mid-February. A lot has happened in the past two weeks since my last column. It feels longer ago to me. Time is not moving at its normal pace.

It appears the economic impact created by the virus, and the lockdown, will last longer than just a couple months. I expect the recovery will be slow and bumpy. It will likely move from a red light, to a yellow light and then, eventually, to green. And, along the way, we should all expect confusing signal changes. The timing and shape of the economic recovery will be driven entirely by the virus. Given this, the pace and progress will no doubt be frustrating.

We all know how this movie will end. Ironically, that doesn’t make it any less suspenseful. Before a vaccine arrives – which experts continue to project won’t happen for at least a year – our collective efforts to slow the spread of the virus is our only moral choice. Naturally, left in the wake is the economy. The opening salvo to mitigate the economic fallout came in the form of the $2.2 trillion CARES Act signed into law one week ago.

The CARES Act’s main goal is to replace lost income for households and businesses during the lengthy lockdown. It is my view that even more financial support will be needed as we will experience only a slow ramp back to “normal.” This legislation was designed to only help cover lost income until around July. The recovery from a deeper and longer economic hole will require more. If I’m right about the slow pace of things to come, this will become more obvious on or before the end of May.

According to current models, the loss of life in the US will ramp up over the next month before we slowly roll down the curve. I fully expect this to happen in waves as new hot spots pop up across the country. With this, investor sentiment could grow more negative despite the massive financial aid provided. This sentiment shift has already started after last week’s very sudden sense of investor relief.

For now, I will stick with my view that the broader stock market could ultimately decline about 40% to 50% from the all-time high. From today’s levels, now down about 25% as of trading Day 31 on my internal market timeline, it’s very important to either prepare your mind or prepare your portfolio for a sizable additional decline in stocks.

It bears repeating, the discipline of risk management is my total focus. Sanitizing my words through the false prism of being right versus being wrong in hindsight is unimportant. As we all know, there are much bigger things to worry about. For the record, and for the sake of the economy, I do hope I’m wrong.

Jason P. Tank, CFA is both the owner of Front Street Wealth Management, a purely fee-only advisory firm and the founder of the Money Series, a non-profit program committed to providing open-access to financial education, for all. Contact him at (231) 947-3775, by email at Jason@FrontStreet.com and at www.FrontStreet.com

Let me begin by saying that I’ve never managed investment portfolios through the false prism of being right versus being wrong. Hindsight will always be perfect. To me, it is always about the discipline of risk management. This is especially true during a market crisis. This extraordinary moment in history has my full attention.

Over the last few weeks, I have been assessing and re-assessing the level of risk in my clients’ portfolios. Understandably, my process has tied closely to the news of the spread of the coronavirus and, most importantly, on its impact on our economy.

Remarkably, there have been only 21 trading days since the market high was reached on February 19th.

From Day 1 through Day 7, the stock market had suddenly dropped about 13% off its high. The business news headlines at the time were largely focused on the serious Chinese “supply chain” disruptions experienced by large international companies.

From Day 8 through Day 11, the market went sideways in very violent fashion. The focus over these days had begun to shift from business-related disruptions to the potential seriousness of our own looming public health crisis. It was at this moment that I wrote my first column addressing coronavirus and how investors might handle it. My advice on Day 11 could fairly be described as both conventional and prudent.

From Day 12 through Day 16, the fear of the profound economic impact of the public health measures we might face had begun to firmly set in. The mass cancellations of larger public gatherings began in earnest and the announcements of school closures hit the news. The stock market fell about 18% during this short period, bringing the total market decline to about 27%, as measured by the S&P 500 index of large companies. Smaller public companies who are more domestically focused began to fall even faster.

From Day 17 through Day 21, the forced closure of restaurants and bars, along with the voluntary actions taken by many others has now followed. So, too, has the start of massive employee layoffs. During this current phase, the market’s volatile up-and-down churn has added yet another 3% to the total decline. And, again, smaller company shares have fallen even faster still.

As I write this, the S&P 500 index is down about 29% and smaller company indexes are down about 39% from their all-time highs. The speed of the decline is unprecedented.

On the morning of Day 22, what I feel we know is this. The roiling closure of economic activity that we’ve experienced so far will undoubtedly increase. The fallout for small business owners and employees is profound. The federal government is searching for measures to lessen the blow. At this moment, their proposed solutions are insufficient. Their current inability to more closely match the speed, scope and scale of the economic crisis concerns me.

I am currently assuming the complete market trading timeline for this health crisis will run through Day 100 or early July. Every day now will add both valuable and worthless news to absorb. We are now standing on the edge of just Day 22. Over the next month, we’ll know a lot more. By that time, I feel the vast majority of the market’s losses will be in the books. I’m looking through the chaos to around trading Day 50 or so.

It is my current view the stock market has more room to fall. With the many uncertainties I see, along with the likelihood of worse to come for the economy, my current base case is for a cumulative stock market decline of around 45% to 50%. The decline in particular stocks will not be uniform. Given this, my focus is on how to best position and prepare for the recovery to come. As I wrote on the morning of Day 12, and now again on the morning of Day 22, I am still confident that this too shall pass.

Jason P. Tank, CFA is both the owner of Front Street Wealth Management, a purely fee-only advisory firm and the founder of the Money Series, a non-profit program committed to providing open-access to financial education, for all.

Up 1,000, down 1,000, up 1,000, and then down yet another 1,000. The past week shows the confused state of the stock market. And, that doesn’t even count the 4,500 point decline the week before last. This is the age of coronavirus. And, this too shall eventually pass.

As most people with an opinion should state on this subject, I am not a doctor. I don’t intend to share any profound insights on the virus itself. My focus and expertise is on its effect on money and markets.

Having managed portfolios through the financial crisis of 2008, much of the last two weeks has felt reminiscent. To be clear, the proximate cause of the market volatility during those two periods couldn’t be more different. However, the commonality begins and ends with the effect that fear has on investors’ collective decisions. Like all forms of panic, fear of the unknown has created a self-reinforcing negative feedback loop. I’m optimistic that once this particular fever breaks, the current negative feedback loop will too.

Until then, the pace, breadth and severity of the spread of coronavirus remains largely uncertain. The opinions espoused by medical experts, and the many untrained among us, are built on layers of assumptions. These assumptions relate to both the pathology of the virus and the public policy decisions we’ll choose to make to slow its spread.

The sensationalized headlines that feed off the din of opinions in today’s noisy world naturally adds to investor uncertainty. Filtering out the hard science from the pure conjecture is admittedly difficult. Regardless, it’s highly important to apply a clear filter to your flow of information. This is especially the case if you are trying to make important decisions about your money.

The global economy is slowing. We are more interconnected than ever before and our economy’s complex web of supply chains has been severely stressed. Beyond the negative effects of these bottlenecks, we’re just now starting to see some impacts closer to home. Many companies and some schools and organizers of large gatherings of people are choosing to push pause on their plans.

It’s rational to expect that most business leaders are likely to delay executing on their short- and intermediate-term plans. This entire negative feedback loop has clearly caught the attention of our financial markets and public policymakers.

Here’s a simple message for readers of this column. As it was during the recession scare of late 2018, your investment portfolio and your approach to risk management is being stress tested, yet again. My general advice to you is to only move with methodical moderation.

For those who have been excessively conservative, consider taking some baby-steps back into stocks. Use these 1,000 point declines as your friend. And, for those who failed to prudently rebalance during the longest bull market in modern history, consider reducing your risk as this coronavirus fever breaks. Every 1,000 point rebound should be an easy opportunity to do what you’ve not done before.

Jason P. Tank, CFA is both the owner of Front Street Wealth Management, a purely fee-only advisory firm and the founder of the Money Series, a non-profit program committed to providing open-access to financial education, for all.

Q: My husband and I are in our mid-60s. We are planning to retire very soon. We are having a bit of a disagreement about when we should file for our Social Security benefits. I want to wait and he wants to collect right away! Who is right?

A: Congratulations! Of course, I can’t tell you who is right without all the facts. But, I can tell you that your decision may open up interesting opportunities during the “gap years” marked by the end of your work life and the start of your Social Security. Given that you’re the one who asked the question, I have to give you the preliminary nod!

To start, most people know the advantages of delaying Social Security. The boost in benefits can be big, if you can afford to wait. That decision, of course, depends on good genes, good health and good luck, too!

Delaying Social Security not only boosts your future benefits, but it also widens the length of your “gap years” and, with it, it also opens a nice tax planning window.

First, there’s a little-known wrinkle in the tax law that’s been around for about 15 years. For people who pay tax in the 12% federal bracket, realized capital gains are afforded a special 0% federal tax rate. If you are able to live off of your already-taxed savings during your gap years, you might be able to strategically sell some of your highly-appreciated stock without taking any federal tax hit at all.

To be clear, selling that stock doesn’t mean you aren’t allowed to immediately re-buy it for your portfolio. You are just getting a tax-free shot to effectively “step-up” the cost basis to today’s price. That’s a shot that usually only happens when you die. This way is much more satisfying!

Next, you might consider doing some strategic Roth conversions during your gap years. A Roth conversion is just a fancy term for taking some of your pre-tax, regular IRA money and moving it over into a tax-free, Roth IRA. Of course, the income tax you’ll owe with any Roth conversion should always be paid with money that’s outside your regular IRA.

The main motivator for doing a Roth conversion is when your current tax rate is the same, or preferably less, than your expected future tax rate. During your gap years, when you might choose to draw down your already-taxed savings to cover your needs, you can purposely look much poorer to Uncle Sam and sneakily squeeze Roth conversions into your tax return at a temporarily low tax rate.

While recently traveling around London during a very special visit to my older brother, I got very used to the constant warning to not fall through the absurdly wide crack between the subway and the platform. So, as the English like to say, as you make your Social Security timing decision, be sure to “Mind the Gap!”