Ah, to be Rip Van Winkle! Just imagine if we could have fallen asleep last New Year’s Eve and are only just now stirring awake wondering what we’ve missed. No doubt we’d be vigorously scratching our proverbial long and scraggly beards as we peruse this year’s dark headlines.

Unbeknownst to us as we blissfully snored away to start 2020, an insidious and novel virus had begun to spread inside and outside China. At first, it seemed like a far away risk. Images of hazmat-suited workers spraying disinfectant in the streets seemed benign and, yes, very foreign. A few weeks later, a storm hit our shores like none other.

Relying on all of our American exceptionalism and optimism, it took the stock market until late February to finally stop rising. In a blink of an eye – just one short month later – not only were the stock market’s big gains from 2019 gone, but essentially all of Trump’s sacred stock market boom since late 2016 had vanished.

Luckily for us, slumbering away like Rip Van Winkle, things were about to get very, very troubling.

Recognizing the speed of the financial meltdown in early March, the Federal Reserve took action only it could take. Within two weeks, the Fed cut interest rates back to zero and, for all intents and purposes, pledged to try to backstop financial markets. Putting this into perspective, it took the Fed six years to buy $4 trillion in financial assets after the Great Financial Crisis. In just eight weeks during this current crisis, the Fed added yet another $3 trillion to the mix. Perhaps more importantly, they promised investors unlimited support for as long as it would take.

Within days, Congress joined the fight and authorized its own $3 trillion of financial aid to both individuals and businesses. Unemployment benefits were boosted dramatically for the tens of millions of workers who were instantly out of work. Direct payments were also sent to nearly every household. About one in ten mortgages and nearly every student loan was given a repayment holiday. Last but not least, about six million businesses were given free government money to keep paying the workers they chose to keep around.

Despite the shutdown’s initial success in bending the curve, the virus once again spread over the summer months and experts were sounding the alarm about the colder seasons to come. In the face of these threats, Congress let its financial aid programs end in August. One logically could have assumed that this level of inaction – both in mitigating the virus and buffering the economy – would have stirred the financial markets awake to the ongoing risks that were apparent late in the summer.

Well, today, with our eyes now finally opening, we find ourselves in a truly peculiar world. It’s been quite a year to be wide awake the whole time. If only we had peacefully slept our way through it all. Ah, to be Rip Van Winkle!

Jason P. Tank, CFA is both the owner of Front Street Wealth Management, a purely fee-only advisory firm and the founder of the Money Series, a non-profit program committed to providing open-access to financial education, for all. Contact him at (231) 947-3775, by email at Jason@FrontStreet.com and at www.FrontStreet.com

The news over the last few weeks has been remarkable in its positivity. No, I’m not referring to the alarming surge in positivity rates in our nation, our state and our community. Nor am I referring to the need to positively stay home and stay safe when it’s at all possible. And, I’m certainly not talking about the positively dark period just ahead of us as this unrelenting virus spreads and we are stretched to new limits.

Instead, I’m talking about the positive vaccine developments.

The vaccine news from Pfizer and Moderna is a game changer. After giving their vaccine to tens of thousands of volunteers, about 95% of the first batch of positive COVID-19 infections happened in people who were only given the placebo. These two vaccines appear to provide protection far better than hoped. It’s important to remember this was never a slam dunk. It could have taken years.

I’m optimistic that we’re actually starting to turn the long, long corner of this crisis. What exactly does this mean for the economy and the financial markets? It all depends on the timing of the vaccine and the actions of our politicians in Washington and Lansing.

Until we achieve mass vaccination, parts of the economy will continue to be heavily weighed down. As we’re experiencing right now, public health restrictions will continue to affect the obvious set of businesses that rely on people gathering together.

Since mass vaccination likely won’t happen until well into 2021, more financial help is needed immediately, especially for these employees and these small business owners. Congress needs to deliver a financial bridge that should have been built many months ago. And, our politicians in Lansing need to start speaking with one voice to ensure public health compliance to get through this difficult period. I am hopeful that their childish, political squabbling will be silenced as we experience our biggest wave of infections, hospitalizations and death.

Naturally, what’s next for the direction of financial markets is far less clear. The main culprit for this lack of clarity is in how markets actually work.

Financial markets are real-time “anticipation machines.” In this sense, both good news and bad news is immediately pulled forward and instantly reflected in today’s prices. Since the crisis hit, the virus has produced violent waves of bad news and good news. Uncertainty and market volatility are identical twins.

Financial markets are also real-time “comparison machines.” The central question that’s answered on a daily basis is whether one investment is more attractive than another. On this front, the Federal Reserve has totally gummed up the machine. With yields on bonds and cash downright paltry, it makes many stocks look relatively attractive, even at today’s all-time highs.

This all presents a serious conundrum, both for investors and for our economy. A vaccine is coming and our hospitals are almost full. The political season is over and real leadership is now required. Congress and Lansing, are you listening? The message the virus is sending is loud and clear.

Jason P. Tank, CFA is both the owner of Front Street Wealth Management, a purely fee-only advisory firm and the founder of the Money Series, a non-profit program committed to providing open-access to financial education, for all. Contact him at (231) 947-3775, by email at Jason@FrontStreet.com and at www.FrontStreet.com

In a bygone era, risk and reward were inexorably linked. Managing an investment portfolio was like turning a series of dials on a dashboard. Today, not so much.

Investors have choices ranging from risk-free to downright speculative investments. These old trade offs, when guided by prudence, were governed by clear-eyed calculus. Cash offered the lowest return and the greatest peace of mind. Stocks offered a chance for higher returns, given enough research, time and guts. And, in between these poles, sat other investment options like bonds of varying maturities and quality. With each step investors took along the path of risk, the deal was clear; higher risk, higher returns. It was all so quaint.

The Federal Reserve now has its heavy fingers gripped to the master dial used to calibrate the sensitivity of every other dial on the financial market’s dashboard. Their master dial is both simple and powerful. It sets short-term interest rates and it changes investor behavior.

Today, cash pays nothing. US Treasury bills pay next to nothing. High-quality bonds offer paltry returns. Even junk bonds issued by financially-weaker companies offer historically slim yields. And, with so many of the dials on the dashboard unresponsive, investors have driven up stock prices to levels that befuddle the green eyeshade types. These are the number crunchers who still care about fundamentals and still believe in the relationship between price and value!

In all fairness, the Fed has been fiddling with the master dial for some time now. Remember when they set interest rates so low, and for so long, that bankers had no choice but to fuel a real estate bubble? The Fed finally woke up to that reality and pulled away the punch bowl. Then, they wildly spun the master dial in reverse to deal with the aftermath. Incredibly, interest rates were pinned to zero for a decade. When even zero rates didn’t work as hoped, they just printed trillions of dollars to tweak the sensitivities of the other dials on the dashboard.

Well, what the Fed has done since March has made their past efforts look restrained. What took them years back then, only took a matter of weeks this time. With one mighty blow, interest rates have hit the floor and are unblinking. Trillions of dollars have been printed to push up asset prices, and drive down yields, everywhere. And, the Fed has credibly promised to starve risk-conscious investors for many years to come. For added impact, politicians have joined the effort. It’s basically free money, after all.

Let me be clear. The Fed, and the bankers they ultimately work for, understand the present situation. Our finance-fueled economy depends mightily on high asset prices. When prices decline, the Fed’s fingers twitch. They seem to have concluded our free-market system cannot be left up to investors alone. Their fingers are twisting every dial now, whether we like it or not. To make matters even worse, I’m starting to feel like my once-stylish green eyeshade is dating me.

As is my habit, I wake in the very early hours on Friday morning to write this column. I routinely start with a blank screen, but rarely a blank mind. The “kernel” of the column is almost always decided and I begin to write. On this crisp morning, however, my screen started out blank and my original topic was promptly discarded. A new one arrived courtesy of Twitter, “Tonight, @FLOTUS and I tested positive for COVID-19.”

Every four years in October, focus inevitably turns to the race for the White House. Having managed money now through five other presidential elections over my career, clients often ask me to opine on the election’s outcome and its possible effects on the financial markets.

While I do my best to answer, admittedly my heart is never really into it. My relative disinterest reminds me of Warren Buffett’s quip that his brain has three boxes, “In”, “Out” and “Too Hard!” For me, elections land in the too hard pile. However, while this election is way too hard – on too many levels – it has my attention.

I’m a numbers guy and I’ve looked at the polling and have played with the electoral map. As things stand today, it is my belief that Trump will lose this election and perhaps in a landslide. This election is, in my view, a clear referendum on Trump. Things have not been looking good for him.

The number of pathways to a Trump victory is small. First, he must win Florida and Ohio. Neither is certain and both are critical. He also needs to avoid an upset in Texas, Georgia, North Carolina or Iowa. While he could theoretically withstand an Iowa defeat, it would likely point to bad outcomes elsewhere on the map. People in Iowa aren’t all that different from other people in the Midwest.

Now, if he gets through that gauntlet of six states, I think he has three possible roads to victory. One goes through Arizona, one through Pennsylvania and one through Michigan.

With Arizona, Trump can win it with either Michigan or Pennsylvania. If he loses Arizona, but happens to eke out a victory in Pennsylvania, he can win by adding either Michigan or Wisconsin. And, if he doesn’t win in either Arizona or Pennsylvania, but is able to pull off another slim victory in Michigan, he needs to also win Wisconsin. To be clear, across all three pathways, his margin of victory is small and his margin for error is tiny.

This is 2020, after all, so I must add that there are a couple of possible scenarios that end in a tie. The verdict is then left up to the newly-elected House; not by majority vote of the representatives, but by simply tallying one vote for each state’s delegation.

Do you know which party currently has a one-state majority in the House, but a clear minority of the House seats? And, what if this election cycle creates a deadlocked House vote? Say hello to President Pelosi. Things can always get crazier!

Jason P. Tank, CFA is both the owner of Front Street Wealth Management, a purely fee-only advisory firm and the founder of the Money Series, a non-profit program committed to providing open-access to financial education, for all. Contact him at (231) 947-3775, by email at Jason@FrontStreet.com and at www.FrontStreet.com

The concept of all things being connected is on my mind. Every glance I take at the news of the day makes it obvious why. And, every day that brings us closer to the colder months makes it more consequential.

In the narrow world of financial markets, the concept of connectedness is clear.

When the Federal Reserve makes cash trash, the flow of investment dollars moves elsewhere. As if moving outward in concentric circles, money moves out the risk spectrum in search of better returns.

After this drives up the price of one investment type after another – inevitably squeezing future returns down – the search moves into even riskier areas. The difficulty lies not in determining the final destination of this journey, but in the timing of the end game. It always ends, of course.

As Chuck Prince, ex-CEO of Citigroup, said just before the mortgage mess exploded, “As long as the music is playing, you’ve got to get up and dance.” Similarly, Warren Buffett wisely wrote just before the tech-bubble popped, “[People] hate to miss a single minute of what is one helluva party. They are dancing in a room in which the clocks have no hands.”

In the broader, real world, the concept of connectedness is equally clear.

As we move into the fall months and move indoors, the virus begins to gain a major advantage. Our next moves will matter.

After six months of sacrifice, the next test of our collective commitment to stop the spread is approaching. I’m afraid we’re in the process of failing.

In Grand Traverse County, our average positive test rate for Covid-19 moved from a summer low of around 1% in early August to over 5% in early September. Epidemiologists want positivity rates below 3%. We have seen about 225 positive cases in Grand Traverse County over the past month. That was with only half of the recommended number of tests given. So, you should probably double it.

With almost all of our area’s schools resuming face-to-face instruction, my focus on our area’s connectedness is heightened. The safety of our 20,000+ kids and our 2,000+ school employees is intimately linked to the safety of our entire community, including our area’s businesses and the livelihoods of thousands of their employees.

The virus thrives on our connectedness. The resumption of typical face-to-face schooling fails the safety test for our community on nearly every level. The daily process of crowding thousands of kids and adults indoors, combined with inadequate testing and a palpable sense of virus fatigue, is a perfect recipe for accelerated spread.

The sad irony is that our desperation to hear the music and ignore the clock on the wall is the very thing that will hold back our return toward normalcy. Remember, we’re all in this together, right?

“We survive here in dependence on others. Whether we like it or not, there is hardly a moment of our lives when we do not benefit from others’ activities.” – Dalai Lama